Root of Hong Kong's troubles 單靠出口術樓市難復常增加供應才可紓解死結

FINANCIAL SECRETARY John Tsang is todeliver his third Budget late this month. It isrumoured that he will propose to raise stampduty on luxury flats, announce other measures tostabilise property prices and positively look at thepossibility of resuming irregular land sales. Rumoursare often trial balloons sent up to sound out developersand the public. Yesterday property shares went up withthe Hang Seng Index. That shows developers arenothing daunted by the government's move. One mayperhaps infer that they have weathered so manystorms that they would not change countenance evenif Mount Tai collapsed in front of them or that they,seeing through the government, are convinced that itwould not dare to do anything about the propertymarket.

Flats in a building in Star Street, Wan Chai, havebeen offered to the public. They have each a saleablefloor area of 408 square feet (including the area of a22 22--square square--foot balcony). They cost between $13million and $15 million each. Those 408 408--sqare sqare--footunits are unlikely to count as luxury flats in DonaldTsang's eyes. However, their per per--square square--foot pricesare safely in the luxury range. Unless he thinks nounits that cost less than $50,000 per square foot countas luxury flats, he must retract his remark that sky sky--highprices of luxury flats have nothing to do with ordinarycitizens.

Cheung Kong executive director Justin Chiu, whowas bullish about the property market late lastJanuary, said in an interview on February 8 theproperty market was due for correction. "Propertyprices went up 15% to 20% in the past two months and40% in the past six months. That is a bit unusual."

We have no idea why Justin Chiu judged therewould be a correction at some point. However,Henderson Land Development, another majordeveloper, expects property prices to go up 15% thisyear.

Developers differ with one another about marketprospects. "Those who share a table when they taketheir meals may practise their religions independentlyof one another." Flat prices have gone up sharplymainly because flats are in short supply. Only 7,157flats were completed last year. The figure, a record lowsince 1972 and the lowest in the past three years, is51% below the government's forecast (14,740 flats).

If, despite of such figures, the Tsangadministration calls the property market normal andbelieves nothing needs to be done, one may say itbehaves irresponsibly like an ostrich, which would buryits head in the sand when pursued.

The government is the biggest landlord and thesole land supplier in Hong Kong. However, it has asgood as assigned its power to control land supply todevelopers. It now withholds land supply. The cart isnow before the horse. We must reiterate this is thedeep deep--rooted reason why the property market is as it is.The anomaly must be rectified. The cart must be putbehind the horse. Only if the government fully controlsland supply can the problem be solved once and forall. As matters stand, it is a desirable option for thegovernment to resume regular land auctions.

The property market is anomalous. That is the rootof many of Hong Kong's deep deep--rooted problems.Shell Shell--less snails are grumbling. Many smallbusinesses may have to fold because they cannotafford exorbitant rents. If the property market remainsanomalous, attempts to solve other deep deep--rootedproblems of Hong Kong will only make matters worse.If the property market is straightened out, many ofHong Kong's problems will go away.

明報社評

2010.02.12

單靠出口術樓市難復常增加供應才可紓解死結

消息說，財政司長曾俊華在本月下旬出爐的第三份財政預算案，會提出穩定樓市措施，構思包括調高豪宅印花稅，亦會積極研究不定期賣地。一般來說，放「消息」是試探氣球，測試業界和公衆的反應，從昨日股票市場地產股未受影響，照樣跟隨大市上升，顯示發展商對政府出招「處變不驚」。這種反應，或許說明發展商見慣大風浪，練就了泰山崩於前而色不變的定力，又或許發展商看破政府的手腳，知道政府不敢修理樓市。

近期，灣仔星街一個單幢新盤，一梯一伙設計，實用面積408 方呎（包括22 呎露台），售價要1300 至1500 萬元。408 方呎，應該不屬於曾蔭權心目中的豪宅，呎價卻是不折不扣的豪宅價碼，除非曾蔭權認為呎價5 萬元以上才算豪宅，否則他應該撤回「豪宅天價與普羅市民無關」的說法。

另外，長實執行董事趙國雄在1 月下旬還看好樓市，但是2 月8 日接受傳媒訪問時，表示樓市會出現調整，並說單是過去兩個月，樓價升了一成半至兩成，而最近6個月，樓價共升了四成， 「有點不正常」。

不知道趙國雄為何判斷樓市會調整，不過，同樣是主要發展商的恒基地產，近日估計今年整體樓價有力上升15% 。

發展商之間對樓市前景有不同估計，那是同枱食飯，各自修行，但是樓市在短時間內大幅飈升，關鍵在於供應短缺。去年全年，住宅單位落成量只有7157 個，創1972 年有紀錄以來新低，亦是連續3 年創出新低紀錄，較政府原預測的14,740 個單位少51% 。

面對這些數字，如果曾蔭權和政府仍然認為樓市正常， 「毋須做嘢」，只是鴕鳥埋首沙堆的不負責任所為。

政府作為本港最大的地主、本港單一的土地供應者，在實際操作上，卻把土地供應權拱手讓給發展商，政府變成「土地不供應者」角色。我們重申，這種君不君、臣不臣的顛倒情况，正是造成樓市現况的最深層原因，必須糾正，改變這種畸型現象，讓君臣歸位，由政府全面主導和掌握土地供應，才是釜底抽薪，徹底解決問題。

畸型樓市是本港許多深層次問題的根源（不單無殼蝸牛怨氣衝天，經營小生意的小老闆亦因捱不起貴租而結業等等問題由此而生），不理順樓市，香港的深層次矛盾只會治絲益棼。樓市復常，許多問題都會豁然開朗。

G lossary

nothing

not at all, in no way.

weather

come safely through, survive.

anomaly //??''nn ??mm ??llII//

a situation that is different from what is normalor expected.