Government must not encourage speculation 升值預期氣氛瀰漫政府切勿助長炒風

YESTERDAY a Tseung Kwan O site went forthe highest price market participants hadexpected it to fetch. That shows developersare bullish about the market. Judging from the askingand transaction prices of new flats recently offered tothe public, property prices will keep going up for sometime. Concern is growing over asset bubbles in Asia.

Singapore, the mainland and Korea have taken drasticmeasures to prevent property prices from rocketing.

Hong Kong's measures to do so are much lessvigorous than theirs. The government's proposedpolicy of "enlivening" the second-hand HOS flat marketwould strengthen the speculation chain and encourageproperty speculation. The fundamental solution is toincrease land supply and produce a suitable amount ofHOS flats. Even if the government refuses tostraighten the property market out gradually byincreasing supply, it must not do anything that mayfurther distort it and expose citizens to the danger ofrocketing property prices.

The successful bid for the site is $3.37 billion, oron average $4,628 per square foot of gross floor area,which is about the same as the average second-handflat price in the district. In other words, flour is as costlyas bread. The successful bidder intends to producemedium-sized flats that target residents in the districtthat want to upgrade their housing. It will not come asa surprise if they cost as much as $7,000 per squarefoot when they are offered to the public. Canmiddle-class citizens afford such a high price?

The government once made a big mistake with thegood intention of helping citizens to buy their ownhomes. It launched the Home Starter Loan Scheme.Unable to resist the lure of gain, some recklesslyentered the market though mortgage repayments werebeyond their means. They subsequently had negativeequity, and some of them blamed the government forhaving them "catch lighted torches".

HOS stands for "Home Ownership Scheme". TheHong Kong British authorities launched the scheme in1978 to help middle-class citizens to buy their ownhomes. Over the years, about 300,000 HOS flats havebeen sold. The HOS has proved quite conducive toHong Kong's stability. The Singaporean governmenthas learned from Hong Kong's experience and put upHDB flats for sale to Singaporeans. Will the stabilisingeffect of the Home Ownership Scheme disappearwhen it becomes a "Home Speculation Scheme"? Thegovernment should give this question much thought.

The government is toying with the idea of"enlivening" the second-hand HOS flat market. Theinference is that it admits few middle-class citizens canafford first-hand private flats, even second-handprivate flats are beyond their means, and they can onlybuy second-hand HOS flats.

It is hard for middle class citizens to buy their ownhomes. That is a fact. It is also a fact that fewuniversity graduates who have worked for a few yearscan dream of buying their own homes. Property pricesare now way beyond the means of many citizens notbecause there is not sufficient speculation but becauseflats are in short supply. (Attempts to solve housingproblems by encouraging speculation are unheard of.)To straighten the property market out, the governmentmust increase land supply. As we have repeatedlypointed out, the government has, by keeping theapplication list system, left it to developers to controlland supply. Developers are of course bent on makingprofits. They are to blame for the unhealthy propertymarket, but the government is the chief culprit. Thesituation would not be as it is if it had done somethingabout it. The government must resume its control overland supply. Only if it increases land supply so that flatsupply will increase will the property market becomehealthy again.

The Hong Kong British authorities pursued abeneficial policy when it launched the HOS thirty-twoyears ago. The policy has proved extremely conduciveto Hong Kong's development and stability. With thebenefit of hindsight, one may say the governmentacted rashly when it scrapped the HOS policy in thewake of the SARS outbreak. Hong Kong's housingproblem has remained essentially unchanged. Thefactors in property prices have remained essentiallyunchanged. Hong Kong remains a tiny, populous placewhere some people speculate in property. Therefore,the government should revive the HOS and make itpart of its overall housing policy. It is still of immediatesignificance to produce a suitable amount of HOS flatsto help middle-class citizens to buy their own homes.

明報社評2010.02.23

升值預期氣氛瀰漫政府切勿助長炒風

將軍澳一幅土地以市場預期上限價成交，顯示發展商看好後市，加上近日發展商所推出新盤，由樓價和成交看來，顯示樓市升勢方興未艾。亞洲資產泡沫問題漸受各方關注，新加坡、中國大陸和韓國都已採取較嚴厲措施壓抑樓市，與他們相比，本港所採取措施力度遠有未及，而政府構思所謂活化居屋二手市場，更會強化樓市炒賣鏈，助長炒風。治本之道是增加土地供應和興建適量居屋；政府即使不增加供應逐步理順樓市，也不要進一步扭曲市場，把市民捲入狂飈樓市的險境之中。

昨日拍賣的將軍澳土地，成交價33.7 億元，平均呎價4628 元，這個地價，與區內現時二手樓價相若，也就是說麵粉已經與麵包同價，發展商表示會興建中型住宅，針對區內換樓客。這個樓盤推出時，呎價達7000 元絕不稀奇；這個價錢，是一般中產階層可以負擔得來的嗎？就協助市民置業，政府也試過「好心做壞事」。當年政府推出「首次置業計劃」，部分人抵受不住眼前「利誘」，在缺乏足夠供樓能力情况下，貿然入市，結果成為負資產一族，他們倒過來埋怨政府要「他們接火棒」。

居屋全名叫居者有其屋計劃（Home OwnershipScheme），始於1978 年，當年港英政府推行這個計劃，用意使中產階層可以置業安居，增加市民對香港的歸屬感。這些年居屋計劃共出售了約30 萬個單位，對於整體社會構成一個龐大的穩定階層和力量，新加坡政府也從中取經，興建組屋買給人民。若「居者有其屋計劃」變質為「居者炒其屋計劃」，原有穩定力量會否被拆解而變得不穩定，值得政府深思。

政府構思活化二手居屋市場，協助中產階層置業，其潛台詞實際承認了：一般中產階層不但買不起一手新盤住宅，連二手私樓也買不起了，他們只能買二手居屋。中產階層置業困難，是事實；年輕人大學畢業後，克勤克儉工作數年，無緣置業也是事實。目前整體樓市脫離了市民的購買力，問題不在於炒賣不足（以炒賣來解決居住問題，舉世未見），問題在於供應不足。要理順樓市，必須增加供應，首先是增加土地供應。我們一再指出勾地表制度，是政府把土地供應權交給發展商，發展商理所當然唯利是圖，樓市目前尾大不掉之勢，發展商固然有一定責任，始作俑者還是政府，因為政府「無為」，放之任之，才出現這種局面。政府必須重新掌握土地供應權，主導土地供應，增加土地供應，從而增加住宅單位供應，才有望理順樓市。

另外，32 年前，居屋計劃是一項好政策，香港之發展和穩定，受惠此項政策良多；SARS 期間貿然全面取消居屋，現在回顧起來，是未經深思熟慮之舉；今時今日，香港居住問題的本質，例如地少、人多、炒賣等基本因素並無改變，基於此，居屋計劃應該恢復為香港整體房屋政策的一部分。恢復興建適量居屋，解決中產階層置業難的問題，今天仍然有現實意義。

每周一音標

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Glossary

bullish

feeling confidence about and positive about thefuture.

HDB

Housing and Development Board (of Singapore).

toy

To toy with an idea is to consider it, but not veryseriously and not for a long time.