Package is bound to be vetoed

THE SAR government has tabled a bill aboutits 2012 constitutional reform package to theLegislative Council (Legco). Yesterday,Deputy Secretary General of the National People'sCongress Standing Committee Qiao Xiaoyangcommented on moderate democrats' demands. Asmatters stand, what has been done to persuadedemocrats to vote for it is far from adequate. Unlessthere is a miraculous breakthrough, it is very likely tobe thrown out as the 2005 package was.

About the six District Council (DC) functionalconstituency (FC) seats, Qiao said the present methodof having them filled by DC members picked by theirfellow DC members was more appropriate, therebyindirectly rejecting moderate democrats' demand thatthey should virtually be directly elected.

Last November, the government called FCelections out of keeping with the principle of universaland equal suffrage. After nearly seven months, Qiaomentioned the phrase and gave it a definition. Thingsseem to have progressed. However, we listenedcarefully and heard him say only that the kernel ofuniversal suffrage was to make sure that all wouldhave equal right of election, which ought to beuniversal and equal. Thereupon, he said emphatically,"As it is generally understood in the world, it ispermissible to impose reasonable restrictions on thisright by law. Countries have adopted different electoralsystems in the light of their respective situations toensure that their people will enjoy universal and equalsuffrage."

Qiao wants Hong Kong people to be prepared for"reasonable restrictions". Furthermore, he made itclear that Chief Executive (CE) candidates would benominated in a different way in 2017 than they wouldbe in 2012. The central government's attitude is suchthat the new nomination method is unlikely to be lessrestricted. There is also a potential danger. Thethreshold may be raised, and there may even bescreening designed to deprive some of their right tostand.

What is called "reasonable restrictions" will play akey part in Hong Kong's democratisation. Themainland's ideas of democratisation are vastly differentfrom Hong Kong's. As for "reasonable restrictions", thecentral government will make them strict, and HongKong people will strive for loose ones. In this process,"one country, two systems" will be put to a severe test.The pan-democratic camp is divided onconstitutional reform. The hawks orchestrated a"referendum", which was in fact a by-election. Thedoves vigorously sought to dialogue with the centralauthorities. They have come under enormous politicalpressure. They have been bitterly ridiculed andsneered at. At first they wanted the central governmentto pledge to allow Hong Kong people genuineuniversal suffrage. When they were certain that it wasuncompromising, they switched to making the 2012elections more democratic so that they could backdown. However, the central government has utterlyrefused to budge. None of their demands have beensatisfied. They have only gained an opportunity to talkwith central government officials. Nevertheless, thoseidle talks have sapped the doves of their political clout.At least some suspect they have betrayed democracy.How can the doves or other democrats justifythemselves to their supporters if they support the SARgovernment's package?

Yesterday the Democrats commented on thegovernment's bill and Qiao's speech. They declaredoutright they would not support the package if thingsremained as they were. It is totally understandable forthem to have taken this stance. Furthermore,yesterday, the 23 pan-democratic legislators declaredin a statement they and 38 nongovernmental bodiesjointly signed that they would vote as one on thepackage.

The lot of package now hangs in the balance.The only way to save it is for the central government toagree that the six DC FC legislators should benominated by their fellow DC members and returnedby all voters. If it does so, the SAR government maymanage to persuade the pan-democratic legislators tovote for it. The electoral method can be prescribed bylegislation. Unless this happens, the package DonaldTsang has put forward will meet the fate of the 2005package. It will be thrown out. That would drasticallychange Hong Kong's political ecology - deal a severeblow to Donald Tsang's authority, fuel internal strife,radicalise the political atmosphere and even harm theSAR's stability. Such a situation must not be dismissedas inconsequential. We do feel hopeless that we canonly hope for a miracle. However, that is the last strawto clutch at now. Whether we will see a miracledepends on what the central government has now inmind.

明報英語網「雙語社評」english.mingpao.com/critic.htm

明報社評 2010.06.08

除非奇蹟出現2012 政改方案難過關

港府就2012 政改方案，向立法會提交決議案，全國人大常委會副秘書長喬曉陽回應溫和民主派的訴求，按目前情况看來，推動民主派投票支持方案的動力，遠遠不足夠；到本月 23 日表決之前，若事態並無奇蹟般突破發展，政改方案繼2005 年之後，第二次被否決的可能性很大。

關於區議會功能組別的6 席，喬曉陽的回應認為現行由區議員互選的做法，較為恰當，間接否決了變相直選的要求。

去年11 月港府提出現行功能組別選舉，不符合普及平等原則，歷經接近7 個月，才從喬曉陽口中說出這5 個字和定義。事態好像有進展，但是仔細聆聽喬曉陽所說的普及而平等，只提到「普選的核心內容是保障人人享有選舉權，做到普及和平等」，他隨即話鋒一轉，側重點在根據國際現實，有關選舉權利是允許法律作「合理限制」，各國按自己的實際情况採用不同選舉制度，實現普及和平等的選舉權。

喬曉陽要港人有「合理限制」的心理準備。喬曉陽挑明2017 年選舉行政長官的提名程序，與2012 年的辦法不同，以中央的取態，這個「不同」，朝寬鬆方向發展的可能不大；而且潛藏一個重大風險：提高門檻，甚至篩選，剝奪一些人的參選權利。

未來本港民主化進程，所謂「合理限制」是關鍵。內地和本港在民主化的理念、價值，存在巨大差異，日後「合理限制」的爭持，具體會是中央要嚴加控制、港人則力爭寬鬆， 「一國兩制」在過程中將面對重大考驗。民主派因為這次政改而分裂，分成補選、公投的鷹派和爭取與中央對話的鴿派。鴿派頂着巨大政治壓力，受盡揶揄嘲諷，起初主要訴求是中央確認真普選，後來確知中央取態強硬之後，退而求其次，要求確實增加2012年民主成分，作為下台階，中央還是寸步不讓，在此情况下，鴿派的訴求，全部落空，只得與中央溝通的機會，但是這些「無米粥」的溝通，卻在剝蝕鴿派的政治能量，起碼，部分人正在質疑他們有否出賣民主派。所以民主派、特別是鴿派若支持港府的方案，將如何向支持者交代？

昨日，民主黨就港府決議案和喬曉陽的回應，即時表示若情况無改變，不會支持政改方案。他們的取態，完全可以理解。另外，23 名民主派議員與38 個民間團體的聯署聲明，他們的投票取態已經綑綁在一起。

政改方案命懸一線，現在僅剩一個活門，就是未來兩周，中央改變6 席區議員功能組別的選舉辦法，由區議員提名，全體選民選舉，爭取民主派支持方案，然後在本地立法階段解決問題，否則行政長官曾蔭權提出的政改方案，只有遭到再一次被否決的命運。這個結果會使香港的政治生態丕變：沉重打擊曾蔭權的管治威信、本港內耗勢必加劇、政治氛圍激化，甚至衝擊整體穩定，實在不能等閒視之。政改期望奇蹟出現，十分無奈，不過，確實只剩下奇蹟了，而奇蹟會否出現，存乎中央一念之間。

Glossary

kernel /'k ?:n(?)l/the central, most important part of an idea or asubject.

sap /sap/To sap a person of something is gradually todestroy it in him.

hang in the balancebe uncertain.