Middle-class PRH

THE Housing Society has proposed buildingmiddle middle--class PRH (public rental housing) toreduce the pressure arising from soaringproperty prices. Middle Middle--class PRH, for which the rent ishigher than ordinary PRH rent but lower than marketrent, caters to sandwich sandwich--class families. Doing so wouldin theory help some middle middle--class families that havedifficulty buying their own homes.

The middle middle--class PRH idea is theoreticallyfeasible. A middle middle--class family that lives in such a flatfor a certain term (five or ten years) will have a respite respite..When it has saved the money it needs to pay down ona private flat, it can vacate its flat for another family'sbenefit.

However, there are problems with middle middle--classPRH.

First, how many such flats must be producedbefore the demand can be met? Property prices havesoared in recent years mainly because flats have beenin short supply. The government has refrained fromputting land up for auction. Consequently, flat supplyhas persistently fallen short of demand. FinancialSecretary John Tsang said last February after he haddelivered his Budget speech that he expected 53,000private residential flats to be completed in the nextthree to four years, or only between 13,000 and 18,000a year. However, it is clear from records that HongKong people buy between 20,000 and 30,000 flats ayear. Supply will remain way below demand. Howmany middle middle--class PRH flats must be built beforedemand can be met? If only one or two thousand unitsare completed a year, the scheme will be like a cup ofwater to a blazing cartload of faggots. It would have noimpact whatsoever on the market.

Even those who have proposed building

middle middle--class PRH agree that the benefit enjoyed underthe scheme should be short short--term. They say it isnecessary to stipulate that a family may live in amiddle middle--class PRH flat only for a certain period.However, if property prices keep going up, when sucha family's term expires, a private flat may still bebeyond its means. Would the government then evictit? If it has no choice but to keep extending its term,the benefit the family enjoys under the scheme willbecome permanent.

One option is to take a measure like the better better--offPRH tenant policy - to force tenants to move out bycharging them double rent, market rent or even more.However, if tenants would rather pay market rent thanmove out or if most of them are adamant that theywould pay old rather than new rent, would thegovernment have their flats broken in and have theirfurniture and other belongings dumped onto garbagetrucks? Now thousands of better better--off tenants would notmove into private flats. Despite the better better--off tenantpolicy, the Housing Authority cannot kick them out ofPRH. On what could the Housing Society rely topersuade middle middle--class PRH tenants to vacate theirflats? This is politically impossible.

Furthermore, as middle middle--class PRH flats are not forsale, the government cannot possibly recover the landcost and the construction cost. If it builds moremiddle middle--class PRH instead of reviving the HomeOwnership Scheme (HOS), it will have to spend moreand more public money on subsidised housing. Itwould be doubtful that public housing developmentcould be sustained in the long term.

The problem with the property market lies in itssupply supply--demand imbalance. It cannot he solvedotherwise than by doing what may increase flat supply.The government should put land up for auction andsuitably revive the HOS. These ways have provedeffective. They would help bring about a permanentcure. Middle Middle--class PRH is only a short short--term substitute.The proposal is too hard to carry out to be worthadopting.

明報社評

2010.06.07

中產公屋易請難送未解樓市深層矛盾

為紓緩高樓價壓力，香港房屋協會建議興建為夾心階層而設、租金高於一般公屋但低於市值的「中產公屋」。這建議理論上可暫時紓緩部分中產家庭置業困難的苦况。

中產公屋在理論上是可行的，中產家庭以較市值便宜的價格入住一個有限的年期（例如55 年或10 年），中產家庭就可借此機會休養生息及儲蓄，待儲夠私樓首期後就可轉到私人市場，騰空單位讓另一個家庭受惠。

但是中產居屋有幾個問題。

首先，要興建多少中產公屋才可紓緩市場的需要？近年樓價急升，最主要原因是住宅單位供應因政府放棄主動賣地而大幅減少，造成持續的供不應求。財政司長曾俊華在本年22 月發表預算案後表示，預計未來33 至44 年約有53,000 個私人住宅新單位供應，即每年只有約1.3 萬至1.8 萬個單位，但證諸歷史，港人每年可消化介乎22 萬至33 萬個單位，供與求的差距依然巨大，到底要興建多少個中產公屋單位才能紓緩市民的置業需求？ 若擴建高級公屋計劃每年只能產生一兩千個單位，根本是杯水車薪，對市場起不了任何作用。

建議擴建中產公屋的人士都認為計劃只是短期資助，必須設入住年期，但若期限屆滿後樓價仍不斷上升，住戶無法負擔私樓價格，難道政府要強行把這些家庭趕出中產公屋？若不強行逼遷，入住年期被迫不斷延長，最終又會變成終身資助。

一個解決的方法是仿效公屋般設富戶政策，以雙倍、市值甚至比市值更高的租金把住戶逼走，但若住戶寧願付市值租金也不願搬走，或者集體只交舊租拒交新租，難道政府會破門入屋，把住戶的家俬雜物掉進垃圾車？房委會的富戶政策也無法把成千上萬不願搬往私樓的人踢出公共房屋，房協憑什麼可以做到？在政治上這根本不可行。

而且，出租公屋由於單位只租不售，即使高級公屋租金較一般公屋貴，政府也永遠無法收回建築及土地成本。若政府不復建居屋而擴大中產公屋計劃，公帑資助只會有增無減，長遠而言公共房屋能否持續發展，實在大有疑問。

住宅單位供不應求是樓市失衡的核心，不從增加土地及住宅供應入手，不可能解決問題，主動賣地和適量復建居屋都是增加供應的辦法，可行性久經驗證，屬於治本之道，高級公屋只是短期替代品，而且執行難度大，不值得推行。

GG lossary

respite /'respaIt/a break or escape from something difficult orunpleasant.

evict /I'vIIkt/

To evict a person is to force him to leave aflat or land.

break in

To break in a flat is to enter it by force.