New balance of power

Passage of the 2012 electoral reforms in the legislature looks to be a foregone conclusion, despite the fact scores of protesters are certain to surround the Legislative Council building today.

Undoubtedly, radicals led by the League of Social Democrats will go after the Democratic Party members following their backing for the reform package, based on its "one-person-two-votes" model. Will the Democrats break up under radical pressure from inside and outside the party?

Nobody likes "running dog" labels. While it can't be ruled out that some members - including founding chairman Martin Lee Chu-ming - may quit the Democratic Party after today's vote, the party will surely survive the blow.

In the months preceding the dialogue, the Democrats also broke ranks with radicals in the league and Civic Party over their campaign to turn the legislative by-election into a referendum. In retrospect, the Democrats not only survived the split with their political allies, but also proved they were right in refusing to be part of the referendum.

The Democrats' decision then has helped to bring about their breakthrough with the central government today. After leading the Democrats to reject the referendum-linked by-election, party vanguard Szeto Wah also played a key role in initiating the "one-person- two-votes" solution to break the deadlock on political development - fending off pressure Lee had been trying to exert on members to scuttle it.

It would be intriguing to ask where Lee - dubbed the "Father of Democracy" by his supporters - would go if he bolts the party he founded. Chances are, he would join the Civic Party instead, since he has identified himself with the Civics for some time.

Today's breakthrough is important because it will prevent society from sliding into radicalism. But what will the future hold for the balance of power?

Certainly, the establishment won't switch off its dialogue with the Democrats after the vote. The governments here and in Beijing will continue to engage them in order to create greater room for cooperation that, once established, will bode well for SAR governance.

However, this will also affect the government's working relationship with pro-establishment parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

Bitter over being left in the cold over the political reforms, the DAB will likely place greater emphasis on livelihood issues, and play tough with the government on general policy matters.

Nothing will change for the League, which will continue to play the role of radical opposition.

The Civic Party will end up the biggest loser after the political cards are shuffled. While it will continue to cast opposition votes in the near future, it is also under pressure to find a new position on the political spectrum for itself.

Today's vote won't please everybody, but it's arguably the best possible outcome at this stage. Hopefully, the breakthrough will pave the way for political parties to show greater readiness to compromise on future contentious issues.

But it would be naive to think it will be all smooth sailing from now on.

英文虎報 Central Station | By Mary Ma