Only way to stabilise property market

THE auction of a site in Tung Chung, which theauctioneer has described as "unusual", showsthat Hong Kong's property market iscomplicated, that many factors may cause changes init and, one may say, that the government's measuresto regulate it have begun to produce results. However,if the government's policy remains as it is, new flats willstill be in short supply in the next three to five years.The government must not think it has succeeded atone go just because of the auction. It should take thelong view. It should try in earnest to rationalise thesupply and demand of flats and building sites andensure that sales of uncompleted flats are fair andreasonable so that the property market will develophealthily.

The site went for $3.42 billion. It is only 19%higher than the offer that had triggered the auction.Under the application list system, a bid amounting to80% of the open market value of a site will trigger itsauction. Therefore, the transaction price is virtually thereserve price, the least market participants hadexpected it to fetch. It is much lower than what theyhad expected it would fetch (between $4.2 billion and$5.6 billion). On the seaside Tung Chung site over2,000 flats can be produced. Though property priceshave gone up a bit less steeply, flats will still be inshort supply, and property prices will remain high. It issurely unusual that no major developers have beeninterested in it.

To officials responsible for carrying out thegovernment's land policy, the "unusual" auction of theTung Chung site is like a glass of icy water one sipswhen it is freezing. They have keenly felt every bit of it.It shows it is wise of the government to decide to tacklethe situation as it has planned. Simply by dealing withsupply and leaving it to market forces to determineprices, it can cause changes in the distorted propertymarket.

It has been suggested that the "unusual" landauction resulted from the government's "ninemeasures and twelve moves". If it did, there aredeep-rooted problems with the property market. Theymust be solved before it can return to normal. The"nine measures and twelve moves" are only designedto ensure fair transactions by making sales ofuncompleted flats more transparent. Developers arerequired only to respect homebuyers' basic rights - forexample, to allow them to take measurements of showflats. Some may say show flats will be overcrowded ifhomebuyers may do so. However, to solve theproblem, developers only need to display accuratemeasurements in their show flats so that homebuyerswill get the figures they need at one glance. Thegovernment still relies on developers to policethemselves. It should closely monitor the situation. Ifthose measures do not ensure fair transactions, itshould try to protect homebuyers' rights by legislation.

The auction of the Tung Chung site has hadanother effect. As land premia have not gone upsharply, there is hope of reversing the expectation thatproperty prices will always go up and never comedown. People may be less anxious to vie with oneanother to "go aboard", and the government may havemore time and greater latitude to straighten theproperty market out. Apart from increasing land supplyand ensuring fair property sales, the governmentshould consider regularly making mid- and long-termhousing strategies as it did. It should scientificallyascertain flat demand, make plans to meet it and holdregular land auctions. Only if supply is always largelyin equilibrium with demand will the property marketdevelop healthily and normally. Only that is in HongKong's best interests.

明報社評

2010.05.13

糾正供不應求弊端 穩定樓市不二法門

拍賣官形容為「不尋常」的東涌土地拍賣，反映本港樓市複雜詭譎一面，也顯示樓市受多方面因素影響的變動不居一面，也可以說政府的調控樓市措施初見成效。但是按現行政策，未來3 至5 年新落成樓宇供應緊絀的基本格局，並未改變；政府不應因為一時一地的拍賣而以為一舉成功，政府應該高瞻遠矚，認真梳理好土地和樓宇的供求關係，並確保售賣樓花的程序公平合理，讓樓市可以健康發展。

地皮最終以34.2 億元成交，較勾地價僅高出19%，在八折勾地機制下，成交價實際上就是底價，是市場預期下限，與市場原先估計成交價介乎42 億至56 億元，有較大差距。東涌這幅臨海土地，可建逾2000 個單位，近期樓市雖云稍為「唞氣」，但是供不應求格局未變，樓價高居不下趨勢持續，大發展商對這幅地卻興趣缺缺，確實有點不合常理。

這次拍賣東涌地的不尋常情况，相信主管土地政策的官員，會有「寒天飲冰水，點滴在心頭」的感受，經此一事，政府按原定步調對應，是明智決定，政府只要在供應面下工夫，透過正常市場機制決定價格，自然可以改變已經扭曲了的樓市。

另外，若「9 招12 式」導致拍賣東涌地「不尋常」的猜測屬實，其性質就顯示樓市存在深層次問題，若不解決，本港樓市就不可能回復常態。所謂「9 招12 式」，只是增加售賣樓花的透明度，創造一個公平交易環境，要求發展商做的措施，對準業主而言，只屬基本權利，例如在示範單位內度尺，若發展商認為會妨礙人流，則只要發展商在示範單位內標示尺寸，讓準業主一目了然，問題自然解決。目前政策仍倚賴發展商自律，政府應密切監察落實情况，若措施未能達至公平交易，政府就必須立法來保障準業主的權益。

東涌賣地結果產生了一個效果，由於即地價並未飈升，有望扭轉市民認為樓價只升不跌的預期，市民爭相「上車」，唯恐落後的情况會有所紓緩。這個情况下，給予政府較多時間和較大空間理順樓市，除了持續增加土地供應，確保發展商公平售樓以外，政府應該研議恢復定期制訂中長期房屋策略，以科學方式找出真正需求，然後制訂供應方案，定期賣地。只有房屋市場經常處於供求基本平衡，樓市才會健康合理發展，也才符合香港的最大利益。

Glossary

in earnest

more seriously and with more force or effortthan before.

latitude /'latItju:d/

freedom to choose what you do or the way thatyou do it.

ascertain /?as ?'teIn/

find out the true or correct information (onsomething).