Beijing to strike in end game

Things are moving fast now that the by- elections are over. But how soon will the new developments lead to a meeting between pan-democratic moderates and the central government?

People are wondering, since, as the old saying goes, it's best to "strike while the iron is hot."

Society is also watching with increasing interest whether a top official from Beijing will be seeing the Alliance for Universal Suffrage immediately and where they will meet. As of yesterday, the alliance was still saying that arrangements have yet to be finalized.

However, it's unlikely to be a one- off exercise with a top central government official attending immediately. Chances are, there will be more than one round of formal meetings - ascending to the next level after completing the first one, similar to playing computer games.

But there shouldn't be too many levels because time is of the essence, with barely two months left before the vote on the 2012 electoral package.

The first official session will have to be held soon after the working group formed by leading members of the alliance and Hong Kong government officials convenes its first working session tomorrow. The guess is the alliance will first publicly meet with officials of the Central Government Liaison Office in Hong Kong, followed by another round at a more senior level.

Furthermore, it would be unusual to see a top official at the first formal meeting because this would go against most commonly-adopted protocols.

Who then will be the top official seeing the alliance at the jackpot level? National People's Congress Standing Committee deputy secretary general Qiao Xiaoyang is the obvious choice. He is senior enough and has been handling the SAR's political reforms. Last month, he appeared in the Great Hall of the People to explain Beijing's views on the issue.

In a conciliatory note, Qiao said the door to democracy is open, leaving it up to lawmakers to decide whether they are ready to enter.

Lastly, it will be pertinent to ask where the top-level meeting will be held. The most common guess would be the mainland, but there are the pros and cons to consider.

If that is indeed the venue, it will emphasize Beijing's sovereignty over Hong Kong. In this case, Shenzhen would be a suitable choice since it is closest to the SAR - without the usual high profile attached to Beijing.

But there are also disadvantages with meeting in the mainland. The SAR government will be unsuitably dwarfed by being seen to be bypassed on this important matter, although it is well- known the central government has the decisive say. This would not be free of political cost to the current SAR administration.

But will Qiao's flying into the SAR be seen as too condescending for Hong Kong people? I don't think so - Qiao is no stranger to the SAR.

In the final analysis, there will be advantages for the top-level meeting to be held here.

Judging by what has happened so far, it is rather clear now that Beijing isn't only aiming at wooing three or four votes from the pan-democratic camp to pass the 2012 electoral package.

It has something much bigger in mind - fundamentally tackling the political bickerings that have dragged us down for too long.

英文虎報 Central Station By Mary Ma