Doves will meet Beijing officials

SINCE the SAR government put forward its2012 constitutional reform package lastNovember, some moderate democrats (thedoves) have sought to have talks with the centralgovernment in the hope of breaking the deadlock overthe SAR's democratisation. Their efforts have got themsomewhere. Central government officials will talk withthem about constitutional arrangements. This is thefirst opportunity that has arisen in twenty twenty--one years ofbringing about political progress in the SAR.

The forth forth--coming meeting between Beijing officialsand the doves may end the 21 21--year estrangementbetween the central authorities and Hong Kongdemocrats. No sooner had the government unveiled its2012 package that a dove dove--hawk struggle began in thepan pan--democratic camp. The doves have tried to havedialogue with Beijing about a final plan for introducinguniversal suffrage. For taking this position they havecome under fire and suspicion over the past fewmonths. One may say the doves have shown greatfortitude in humiliating circumstances. It is not withease that the forthcoming meeting has been arranged.

We are glad that the central government hasresponded favourably to their goodwill. Nevertheless,because of their long estrangement, they still beargrudges against each other. It is unrealistic to expectthem to agree on an ultimate plan for introducinguniversal suffrage at a single meeting. They will makerare progress if they build up mutual trust and thecentral government makes more concrete pledgesabout the 2017 Chief Executive election and the 2020Legislative Council election.

It is the central government that decides on HongKong's constitutional arrangements. One may say itholds most of the cards. Even if the talks provefruitless and, as a result, the 2012 package is thrownout, the central government will lose little. At mostHong Kong's political situation will remain as it is.

That is not the case with the doves. They areunder great pressure, and much is at stake. First, thehawks may bash them and mistrust them. If anythinggoes awry, they may be given the opprobrious labelof "betrayers of democracy". Second, they must justifythemselves to their supporters. Furthermore, thecentral government has imposed many restrictions onthe 2012 constitutional reform, and the doves havevery few cards. Whether they can achieve anythingdepends on the central government's attitude. Theyare, one may say, beset with severe difficulties.

Nevertheless, they have some chance since theywill meet central government officials. We urge that thedoves, adhering to their principled position, strive to dothe following three things.

(1) They should urge the central government tomake more concrete statements about the 2017 and2020 universal universal--suffrage elections so that citizens willhave greater confidence that they will eventually enjoyuniversal suffrage. That is crucial.

(2) To make it easier to introduce genuineuniversal suffrage, they should urge the centralgovernment to allow the 2010 constitutional reformpackage to be made more democratic.

(3) They should try to make sure that they willcontinue to interact positively with the centralgovernment, and they should see that suchinteractions will eventually take place between thecentral government and all pan pan--democrats.

Estranged for twenty twenty--one years, the two sidesmistrust each other. We know very well these tasks arevery hard to accomplish. It is the central governmentthat holds the key to success. It is in Hong Kong's bestinterests to prevent its political ecology from becomingradical, improve its governance and increase itspolitical stability. If the central government considersthe issue in this light, what we have mentioned aboveis quite sensible and far from excessive. Whether thedoves will succeed depends on the centralgovernment's decision. It can begin a new chapter inHong Kong politics if only it displays great wisdom andgreat boldness.

明報英語網「雙語社評」english.mingpao.com/critic.htm

21 年來中央官員首會民主派期望政局突破明報社評2010.05.18

去年11 月特區政府推出2012 年政改方案以來，溫和民主派（簡稱鴿派）尋求與中央溝通，解開香港政制終極普選死結，終於有眉目，中央官員將與鴿派會晤商討政制安排問題。這是21 年以來，香港政局良性發展的契機。

這次中央官員與鴿派會晤，乃21 年來中央與民主派僵局的突破，主要是政府拋出2012 年政改方案之後，泛民陣營出現鴿派與鷹派路線分歧，鴿派爭取溝通對話，尋求終極普選方案的取態，過去數月備受攻擊和質疑，可謂忍辱負重。我們高興看到中央對於鴿派的善意也作出善意回應。這次雙方會晤可謂得來不易，不過，基於中央與鴿派畢竟長時間隔膜，有一定芥蒂，若認為一次會晤就可以徹底解決終極普選安排，不切實際，這次會晤，若能夠使雙方建立互信基礎，就2017 行政長官和2020 立法會兩個選舉有更具體承諾，就是難得的進展。

中央主導政制安排，可以說大多數的牌都抓在手中，就算這次與鴿派談不攏， 2012 年方案被否決，中央也沒有實質損失，最多只是香港政局並無改善而已。

鴿派卻不一樣，其壓力甚大、風險極高。首先，他們要面對鷹派的攻擊和質疑，稍有什麼風吹草動，都可能被扣以出賣民主的污名；其次，鴿派要向支持者交代。還有，中央就2012 政改的框框條條那麼多，鴿派手中的牌卻是那麼有限，要取得成績，主要視乎中央的取態，可謂極其困難。

無論如何， 有會晤就有機會，我們要求鴿派必須堅持原則立場，就33 方面向中央爭取：

（1）關於）2017 和2020 真普選的表述，要爭取中央作更具體和實質的表述，增加市民大普選將會實現的信心。這一點最關鍵。

（2）2012 年政改方案，仍有增加民主成分的空間，為真普選創造更多條件。

（3）爭取與中央的良性互動持續下去，類似會晤和交）往正常化，進而擴及全部民主派。

21 年的隔閡和諸多猜疑，要達至這3個成果，我們深切知道難度甚高，而掌握成敗關鍵的是中央。中央若從避免政治生態激化，從香港管治、政治穩定等最大利益考慮，則上述3點訴求合情合理，不算奢求。能否成事，我們認為在中央一念之間，只要中央展現大智慧、大魄力，就可以為香港政局翻開新的一頁。 Glossary

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