Support for moderate democrats

AFTER the government's constitutional reformpackage had gone through, the DemocraticParty came under fire. It once seemed indanger of losing many of its supporters. However, twopublic opinion surveys have shown the situation isdifferent from what it appears to be. Support for it hasgrown rather than dwindled. Support for thepan-democratic camp has also grown, while that forthe establishmentarian camp, of which the DAB(Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progressof Hong Kong) is the backbone, has slightlydiminished. All the indications are that the political mapis changing, and moderate democrats have gainedpopular support.

In one of the surveys, 57.6% of the respondentsindicated they supported none of the parties or did notknow or could hardly say which of them to support.Clearly, the opinion of over 50% of Hong Kong citizensis malleable. Whichever camp has the support ofmore citizens in the "silent majority" will win the nextbattle.

It can be seen from changes in legislators' andpolitical parties' rankings that a party's political stancemay not be decisive though it may be a factor. Forexample, though the Democratic Party's position onthe political reforms is quite different from the CivicParty's, both have gained ground politically. TheLeague of Social Democrats (LSD) and the Civic Partyhave tried to capitalise on the same political issue, butthe former has clearly lost to others in opinion polls.That shows political parties' characteristics and waysof doing things sway citizens' choices. What sets theLSD apart from the Democratic Party and the CivicParty is its radicalism. For example, during thereferendum campaign", Albert Chan, who belongs tothe LSD, once yelled "liberate Hong Kong". That hashad people wonder where some politicians would leadHong Kong.

Citizens judge political parties and legislatorsbelonging to them by how moderate or radical theyare. According to surveys, more citizens supportpolitical parties and legislators that use moderate waysto fight for Hong Kong's democratisation.

However, opinion polls are about particularperiods. In our view, only if they gain political power inelections can moderate democrats be certain thatcitizens support their line and can they ensure that themoderate line will mainly influence the development ofthe political situation.

Moderatism has become part of the mainstream inthe pan-democratic camp. The SAR government andthe central government should seize the opportunity todeal with constitutional arrangements that remain to bemade. First, local legislation is necessary for creatingfive functional constituency seats in 2012. Such is theLegislative Council's composition that it is not hard forthe government to persuade moderate, sensiblepeople to support its sensible proposal.

The central government should realise that, whenrational moderatism is part of the mainstream andmore and more people are aware that dialogueproduces results and confrontation gets Hong Kongnowhere, more and more people may join themoderate camp. It should opportunely start consideringpolitical arrangements that should be in place in HongKong in ten years. Such matters have long troubled theSAR. We again suggest that a committee on HongKong's political arrangements be set up. It should belike the Basic Law Drafting Committee. It shouldanswer to the Standing Committee of the NationalPeople's Congress and comprise mainlanders andHong Kong people. It should set targets and seekcommon ground. Its job would be to consider whatconstitutional arrangements should be introducedHong Kong in ten years. The Legislative Council wouldsubsequently give its proposals statutory force so thatHong Kong will no longer have to suffer from troubleevery four or five years.

明報社評 政改後政治版圖調整 溫和民主派獲更多支持

政改方案通過之後，民主黨備受狙擊，一時間，民主黨彷彿有流失大批支持者之虞。不過，根據兩個民意調查結果顯示，實際情况與表面現象不一樣，民主黨的支持者不但未見減少，反見增加，泛民陣營整體支持者也顯著增加，而以民建聯為主的建制陣營，支持者則微減。整體情况顯示政治版圖在調整，個別黨派之得失，說明理性溫和取態的民主派，獲得更多市民支持。

同樣地，調查結果顯示，對支持哪一個政黨採取「沒有/不知/難說」取態的人，高達57.6%，說明逾半民意取向的可塑性，仍然十分高，說明哪一方陣營能夠爭取較多「沉默的大多數」支持，就會是下一輪博弈的贏家。從議員排名和政黨支持度的消長，使人看到政治議題可能起到一定作用，卻並非決定性因素。例如，民主黨和公民黨在這次政改，取態截然不同，卻在政治上同樣獲得進展，但是社民連與公民黨操作同一政治議題，在民調上明顯是輸家。這個結果，顯示政黨屬性和所採取手法，影響着市民的好惡選擇，而社民連與民主黨、公民黨的最大分野，是前者取態手法激越，例如在「公投運動」，社民連的陳偉業一度喊出「解放香港」等口號，使人警惕政客要把香港帶往一個怎樣的方向。

所以，手法溫和抑或激進，是市民評價政黨和其議員表現的標準，結果顯示有更多市民支持以溫和手法推動、爭取民主的政黨和議員。

我們認為民調結果只是一時一地，溫和民主派必須透過選舉，取得更多政治權力，才可以確定市民支持他們的路線，也才可以確保溫和路線繼續主導政局發展。至於特區政府和中央，則應該利用溫和取態成為泛民陣營主流的契機，處理政制安排餘下的問題。首先，2012 年選舉安排，還有新增5 席功能組別的本地立法要處理，只要政府提出合情合理的辦法，以目前立法會的組合，應該不難得到溫和理性力量的支持。

其次，中央應該看到，當理性溫和力量或為主流，愈來愈多人看到對話可以取得積極成果、對抗則無出路的情况下，相信會有愈來愈多人投入對話陣營，中央應該趁此機會推動10 年立法，徹底解決困擾香港的政制安排問題。在此，我們重提較早前的建議，當局仿效當年基本法起草委員會的模式，成立「香港政制安排協調會」。後者可向全國人大常委會負責，匯集包括內地和本港相關人士組成，訂定工作目標，凝聚共識，為香港政制安排進行10 年立法的研議工作；然後把共識由立法會完成相關法定程序，以擺脫每隔四五年香港就要折騰一次的循環。

Glossary

malleable /'malI ?b(?)l/easily influenced or changed.

answer

If you answer to another, you have to explainyour actions or decisions to him.

comprise /k ?m'praIz/have as members.