Property bubble

THIS issue of MMiinngg PPaaoo carries three storiesabout the real estate sector. They are aboutthe auction of the Mount Nicholson Road sitefor luxury development, the ballot drawing for the saleof surplus HOS (Home Ownership Scheme) flats, andthe Commission on Strategic Development'sdiscussion of subsidised home ownership. On the faceof it, they have nothing directly to do with one another.However, they point to certain phenomena andproblems of the real estate sector. They show luxuryunits will account for a higher and higher percentage ofnew flats. If this remains the case, homes will becomeeven more unaffordable for sandwich sandwich--class citizens.Chief Executive (CE) Donald Tsang and his officialsought to think about this situation and try to address it.The Mount Nicholson Road site fetched a highprice. The other day a developer triggered the sale of asite for luxury development (at 1 Ede Road, KowloonTong). The message developers have given out isquite clear. They will concentrate on producing luxuryflats. It is a task the government is faced with to findways to ensure adequate supply of medium medium-- andsmall small--sized flats.

Per Per--square square--foot prices of medium medium-- or small small--sizedflats in some districts now approach or exceed whatthey were in 1997. Judging from the laws of theproperty market, the bubble has just taken shape shape..Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief ExecutiveNorman Chan once said, "I am certain that, once abubble is created, it will grow with immense power andsuppressing it will be difficult." The curtain has risen ona new round of property craze. The government's landpolicy, which does not help meet Hong Kong's needs,has helped boost the property bubble. It is now hardfor the government to prevent it from inflating whateverit may do. In fact, the Tsang administration, whichalways holds that any measure would topple theproperty market, is unlikely to do anything.

Early this month, the Commission on StrategicDevelopment discussed the possibility of reviving theHOS. We gather that 39 of its members were present.Donald Tsang, its chairman, was also there. More thantwenty of them spoke at the meeting, and more than ahalf of them were in favour of reviving the HOS. Evenlegislator Abraham Shek, who represents the realestate and construction sector and is invariablyconsidered keen on protecting developers' interests,said he believed it would have little impact on theprivate property market to revive the HOS in a limitedway, and that would allow sandwich class citizens tobuy their own homes and thus increase their sense ofbelonging to Hong Kong and conduce to socialharmony.

However, when they talked about the meeting,officials emphasised that opinions were divergent butrefrained from revealing most of the members whospoke at the meeting were in favour of reviving theHOS. Furthermore, some have said Donald Tsangrepeatedly emphasised at the meeting land was inshort supply. In fact, if the government does long long--termplanning, there will be no problem about providing landfor HOS and private development. This is evidencedby what has happened over the past three decades.

It is an open secret in officialdom that DonaldTsang is against reviving the HOS. It is Donald Tsangthat has appointed the members of the Commission onStrategic Development. The government controls theadvisory body, most of whose members are its friends.However, even some of its members said to DonaldTsang's face the government should revive the HOS.He would do well to ponder those words unpleasant tohis ears.

We believe we will know what option he will takewhen he delivers his next policy address next October.We want to point out it is clear from what hashappened over the past three decades that the HOShas done Hong Kong much good and no harm. IfDonald Tsang decides against reviving it, he ought toproduce evidence that it has badly harmed Hong Kong.It is not open to him to decide on a policy that wouldaffect thousands upon thousands of householdsaccording to his likes and dislikes.

明報社評

2010.07.29

發展商豪宅瞄準內地客 樓市泡沫中產更難置業

本報今日有三則與房地產有關的新聞報道，一是聶歌信山豪宅用地拍賣售出，二是居屋貨尾攪珠，三是本月初策略發展委員會討論資助市民自置居所的情况。這三件事，表面上無直接關係，箇中情况其實反映了環繞房地產的一些現象和問題，說明新樓趨向豪宅化；若持續下去，夾心階層置業難將更加突顯。有關情况，值得行政長官曾蔭權和官員思考和設法對應。

聶歌信山土地以高價成交，日前有發展商勾出九龍塘義德道的豪宅用地拍賣，發展商的信息很清楚了，他們埋首發展豪宅；如何使中小型樓宇供應不致斷層，是政府要面對的議題。

今時今日，一些地區的中小型樓宇，呎價逼近或已超過1997 年，以樓市規律，目前僅是泡沫形成之始，按金管局總裁陳德霖所說「資產泡沫一旦形成，它自身會產生極大動力，要抑制將會很難」，樓市新一波狂潮，揭開帷幕。過去一段日子，政府的土地政策未能切合需要，助長了樓市泡沫，現在就算政府採取什麼措施，也難以抑制泡沫脹大下去，事實上，以曾蔭權政府一貫認為採取措施就會「推冧」樓市的思維，相信也不會有什麼動作。

本月初，策發會曾經討論復建居屋政策，據知當日39名委員與會，身兼策發會主席的曾蔭權也有出席，超過20 名委員發言，其中逾半贊成復建居屋。一貫被認為維護發展商利益的立法會功能組別地產及建造界代表石禮謙，也表示他個人認為有限度復建居屋與私人市場並無衝突，可為夾心階層提供置業機會，使他們對社會有歸屬感，促進社會和諧。

不過，官員在交代會內討論情况時，只着重「意見分歧」，卻未透露發言委員多贊成復建居屋。另外，曾蔭權被引述在會上多次強調土地供應短缺。其實，只要政府有長遠規劃，居屋和私樓的土地根本就不是問題，這在過去30 多年已經證明了。

曾蔭權反對復建居屋，在官場已屬公開秘密，不過，策發會委員由曾蔭權委任，這個以政府「自己友」為主、由政府控制的諮詢組織，發言委員當着曾蔭權面前，都表達應該復建居屋的意見，逆耳之言，值得曾蔭權反思。

曾蔭權最終如何抉擇，相信他在10 月發表的施政報告會有所交代。我們要指出的是： 30 多年來歷經驗證，居屋政策給香港帶來好處，未見壞處，若曾蔭權最終否決復建居屋，他需要提出居屋政策害慘香港的真實理據，而非單憑個人好惡來決定涉及千家萬戶的政策。

Glossary

take shape

If something takes shape, it starts to appear insuch a way that it is fairly clear what its finalfo form will be.

in favour ofIf you are in favour of something, you support it.

face

If you say something to a person's face, yousay it to him directly rather than to others.