Mainland-powered baby boom

Hong Kong's population is projected to swell to nearly nine million in 30 years, according to the census and statistics commissioner, who released other interesting figures.

Over this time, the number of elderly residents will grow from the current 13 percent of the population to 29 percent.

One reason for this is that people in Hong Kong now have a longer life expectancy, second only to Japan. In addition, local women are having fewer babies.

Fortunately, the number of births by mainland parents in the SAR has shot up from a few thousand a year to 30,000 in 2009. And from mid-2038 to mid-2039, it is projected to hit 43,000 yearly - making up about half of the total birth rate.

So, if not for the mainlanders, the percentage of Hong Kong's aging population would be a lot higher. It's part of reality. Ten years ago, one seldom ran across anyone speaking Putonghua. Today, Putonghua-speaking people are everywhere - the MTR trains, buses, the lift, and even next door to you.

It's something we all have to live with, but that shouldn't pose a problem. After all, Hong Kong is and has always been an international society. In fact, after World War II and the rise of communism in China in 1949, it became mainly a city of refugees.

The bigger picture is integration, especially with the mainland. This is vital, not only to neighboring cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, but even further to Beijing and Shanghai. As well, those born here to mainland parents choose to educate their children or work in Hong Kong.

The authorities, therefore, need to have the hardware - the schools, flats and the transportation infrastructure - well in place to cater for this.

Commissioner for Census and Statistics Fung Hing-wang said the number of births by 2039 is projected to lie between 84,000 and 96,000 per annum.

"The number of [babies] born in Hong Kong to mainland women will continue to increase in the coming three years," he said.

The projected figures for 2010, 2011 and 2012 are 40,500, 45,500 and 49,500 respectively.

Overall, it is projected that about 92 percent of babies by mainland women whose spouses are permanent Hong Kong residents, and 52 percent of those by mainland parents will remain here before reaching the age of 21.

The Hong Kong resident population will rise at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent, from seven million in mid- 2009, to 8.89 million in mid-2039.

"The population is expected to remain on an aging trend. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise markedly, from 13 percent in 2009, to 28 percent in 2039," Fung said.

Unlike their fathers and grandfathers, Hong Kong people nowadays don't bury their heads and work 12 hours a day. They want much more in life, in particular to live where there's a lot of greenery and fresh air.

So besides infrastructure, we will need to improve the environment.

英文虎報
Central Station | By Mary Ma