Bigger role awaits next chief

The next chief executive election won't be held for another two years. But the acrimony between two pro- establishment heavyweights in the past week has helped bring the 2012 race to the forefront.

It is publicly known that Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen and Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying are the likely contenders. But National People's Congress Standing Committee member and former Legislative Council president Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai's attack on Leung has given the guessing game a new sense of suspense.

First, Fan expressed strong feelings over the Exco convenor's public advocacy of the Home Ownership Scheme, when it was clear the government had reservations about reviving the scheme.

After Leung refuted Fan's account on his blog, she took him further to task, saying that during her time in the pre- 1997 Exco, she had never heard of a senior official publicly challenging government policies - even if he held different opinions.

The exchanges were rather unusual. While it wasn't the first time Fan had launched attacks, the development warrants closer monitor.

Recently, Fan was at the focus of public attention too after Democratic Party lawmaker James To Kun-sun stated in the assembly she had been forming an administrative team, aiming at the chief executive's post.

However, as he splashed the news, To didn't point out it wasn't the 2012 race that Fan had in mind. It's plausible To was alluding to part of Beijing's contingency plan in the event that political talks over the 2012 reforms ended in total collapse, with the SAR becoming so tense that the chief executive had to step down. Were this to happen, Fan may stand in as the caretaker until the next election.

Fan will be 67 in 2012, and it's unlikely she would be a serious contender.

From Beijing's viewpoint, the 2012 election can't be weighed in isolation from both the chief executive and Legco elections in 2017 and 2020, when universal suffrage will have the day. It will certainly be in the SAR's interest for the chief executive in 2012 to build up prestige and win a second term five years later with public support. This will strengthen the constitutional design that the SAR is executive-led.

So, will there be contenders other than Tang and Leung? Although Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun- wah had been tipped as a potential candidate in the early stages, he's no longer counted as in the field.

Nevertheless, it's likely the pan- democrats will agree on somebody to contend the chief executive post. They've done it before, backing the Civic Party's Alan Leong Kah-kit in the race against incumbent Donald Tsang Yam-kuen in the 2005 by-election.

Could the Civics' Audrey Eu Yuet- mee lead the challenge this time around - even though she is said to be not particularly interested?

Perhaps more clues can be drawn in next year's District Council election. The expectation is that it will be more exciting than anytime in the past because of the new political reforms.

The District Council race will be marked with prominent names. Let's see who will run then, as we ponder the 2012 elections.

英文虎報
Central Station | By Mary Ma