Let moderate force take root 中央須看通香港棋局讓溫和力量落地生根

AFTER the five five--constituency referendummovement had started, moderate democratsformed an Alliance for Universal Suffrage,which advocates fighting for universal suffrage throughdialogue. Last week, its representatives and those ofthe patriotic camp and the government gathered atMing Pao to talk about abolishing the functionalconstituencies. Alliance representative CheungMan Man--kwong made it clear that Hong Kong peopleshould enjoy genuine universal suffrage. However, theestablishmentarians did not budge.

That was the first time representatives of threegroups of different political complexions and those ofthe government had openly talked about ways ofpushing the constitutional reform forward. Theatmosphere of rational discussion is hard won. Afterthe government had unveiled its 2012 constitutionalreform proposals, the Civic Party and the League ofSocial Democrats jointly staged the five five--constituencyreferendum movement. The Democratic Partyadamantly refused to join them. It eventually broke upwith them. The referendum movement has now caughton like fire, but the Alliance advocates dialogue withthe establishmentarians and the central authorities.The Democratic Party and the other groups have madea risky move. They risk being attacked by both theradicals and the establishmentarians.

It was against a unique backdrop that the Alliancecame into being. After the 2012 package had comeout, the pan pan--democrats had a two two--line debate. Theradicals thought that the fight for democracy would notsucceed without triggering a de facto referendum,while the moderates believed that, as the de factoreferendum idea had scanty public support, the rightthing to do was to fight for democracy throughdialogue. They had fierce debates about means andeventually parted company company. However, one must. notice that the moderates differ with the radicals onlyabout the means of fighting for democracy. They agreewith one another about the ultimate goal of thepro pro--democracy movement. The pan pan--democrats arefirmly agreed that Hong Kong people should enjoygenuine universal suffrage and that the functionalconstituencies should be abolished. That is theirbottom line, from which even moderate democratswould not budge.

Moderate democrats took a big risk when theyadopted the dialogue line. The were under enormous pressure from the Civic Party and the League of SocialDemocrats to join their referendum movement. Nowsome establishmentarians would dialogue with them,and even the liaison office of the central governmenthas said the rational voice is growing, they may beaccused of giving in to the central authorities. They arewalking a tightrope tightrope. If, though they have taken such. a moderate stance, they fail to bring about abreakthrough in the pro pro--democracy movement or havethe central authorities' pledge that Hong Kong peoplewill enjoy genuine universal suffrage, they cannot helpbut believe the "warm wind" is only what the centralauthorities have used to split the pan pan--democraticcamp. When they are convinced that they have beentaken in and there is no hope that Hong Kong peoplewill enjoy genuine universal suffrage, they will believethe moderate line has proved ineffectual. When theycannot justify themselves to voters who are in favour ofddemocracy, they will have no option but to adopt radicalemocracy, ways. If, unhappily, this happens, one may say it is thecentral authorities that have compelled them to do so.

If they are driven to go radical, the centralauthorities will be faced with an alliance that comprisesall major pro pro--democracy parties, that is resolved to achieve its goal, that is united, that has long enjoyedthe steady support of about 60% of the voters, and thatdespairs of their "warm wind". If it is resolved to fightfor democracy by antagonistic means (for example, bygiving up their seats to trigger a referendum) and tochallenge the SAR government's authority, Hong Kongwill be plunged into even greater political difficulty.

The central authorities will see there areopportunities as well as crises if they see through thechess game. The other side of the coin is anopportunity to extricate Hong Kong from its politicaldifficulty once and for all.

If the central authorities seize the opportunity tohave serious dialogue with moderate democrats, allowHong Kong people to enjoy genuine universal suffragein 2017 and 2020 as it has promised and have thefunctional constituencies abolished, they willestablished the moderate line. Then, the moderateswill have dominance in the SAR. Only if moderatedemocrats achieve real results can they prove theirworth to their voters. Only then will the radicals bediscredited, will citizens be convinced that reckless,radical moves will be rebuffed, and will the moderateforce take root in Hong Kong.

中央須看通香港棋局讓溫和力量落地生根

55 區公投運動正式啟動後，溫和民主派政黨組成了「終極普選聯盟」（普選聯），提倡以對話爭取普選，上周更與愛國陣營、工商界及特區政府的代表齊集本報，商討立法會功能組別的存廢問題。會上普選聯代表張文光表明要求落實真普選，但建制派未有讓步。

這次論壇，是33 個不同政治背景的聯盟及政府首次公開坐下來探討政改前路，這個理性討論的氛圍，得來不易。自特區政府提出2012 年政改方案後，公民黨及社民連聯手推動「55 區公投」，但民主黨堅拒參與，最終不惜與公社兩黨「分裂」，並在「公投運動」推展得如火如荼之際，提倡與中央及建制派展開對話，民主黨等的做法是兵行險着，可能遭到激進派和建制派左右夾擊。

普選聯的成立，有其獨特背景。2012 年政改方案推出前，泛民主派出現路線之爭，激進派認為，若不訴諸變相公投不可能成功爭取民主，但溫和派則認為變相公投不獲民意支持，因此應以對話爭取民主。雙方就爭取民主的「手段」展開激烈爭辯，最終走上「分裂」之路。要注意的是，激進派與溫和派只是就爭取民主的「手段」出現分歧，對民主運動的最終目標完全一致。「爭取真普選、廢除功能組別」，是泛民主派的堅實共識，即使是溫和派也是不能退讓的絕對底線。

溫和民主派採納對話溝通的路線，冒着極大風險。先要頂着公社兩黨要求參與公投的要求，如今部分建制派願意對話，中聯辦也表示理性聲音增強，又要冒着被指向中央妥協的指摘，猶如在鋼絲上行走。若如此溫和理性的態度，也未能為民主運動帶來突破，未能換來真普選的承諾，溫和民主派難免會認為現時的所謂「暖風」，只是中央的分化手段，一旦溫和派認定這次是「被耍了」，真普選落實無望，就等同證實溫和手段根本行不通，無法向支持民主的選民交代，溫和民主派也只好走上激進之路。若情勢不幸這樣發展，則這條激進之路，是中央逼出來的。

一旦溫和民主派被迫走上激進之路，中央將面對的局面是，一個包涵泛民主要政黨、有堅實目標、團結一致、長期獲社會約六成選民穩定支持，並對中央的「暖風」感到絕望的大聯盟，若這聯盟將決心以對抗的方式（例如辭職公投），爭取民主，並挑戰特區政府的管治權威，屆時香港的政治困局將會更大。

相反，若中央看得通這盤棋局，就會知道當中是有危亦有機。在錢幣的另一面，就是長遠解決香港政治困局的契機。

若中央把握這次機會，與溫和民主派展開認真的對話，並兌現承諾，讓香港在2017 及2020 年實現真普選，取消功能組別，這就等於確立了溫和路線的地位。從此以後，溫和力量才是香港的主旋律。只有讓溫和民主派得到確實的回報，才能讓他們向選民有所交代，也只有如此，才能真正化解香港的激進力量，讓民眾相信，盲目激進只會撞向高牆，溫和力量才能在香港落地生根。

Glossary

part company

If you part company with a person, you end arelationsh relationship with him.

ip walk a ti tightrope ghtrope

be in a difficult situation in which you do nothave much freedom of action and need to beextrem extremely careful about what you do.

ely take in

If you take a person in, you make him believesomething that is not true.