2010年7月18日星期日

Admit it, we can hear their roar

Agricultural Bank of China struggled to stay above its offered price on its first day of trading in A shares.

The debut was weak, but not bad in light of the loss in the Shanghai composite index on the back of lower-than- expected economic data released by the central government.

How will the H share debut in Hong Kong go today? Fingers are crossed.

Figures released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics confirmed that China's economic growth is decelerating. As I've said before, a slower pace is expected as Beijing quietly exits the market.

The data shows the mainland's economic expansion eased to 10.3 percent in the second quarter, from 11.9 percent in the first quarter. Industrial output rose 13.7 percent, but the market had expected better. Inflation fell to 2.9 percent in June from 3.1 percent in May.

All these figures point to an abating risk of overheating, and this is certainly what Beijing leaders are pleased to see after slapping on measures to cool the financial and property sectors. It also creates greater room for Premier Wen Jiabao to manage the balance between austerity and flexibility.

It may not bode well for Hong Kong, however, since economic growth in the SAR has a lot to do with what's happening in the mainland - similarly mirrored in the parallel movements between the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai's SSE Composite Index.

There's no question that China's economy is still on a safe and robust course. But it's time for Hong Kong to see what it can do on its own to stimulate the economy further as growth slackens across the border.

Officials on Lower Albert Road should look to Singapore's experience for inspiration. The Lion City of barely five million people has overtaken China as Asia's fastest-growing economy, after posting record growth exceeding 18 percent in the first six months.

This first-half growth was the fastest since records began in 1975, prompting the Singaporean government to revise upward its GDP for 2010 to 15 percent.

Why has it been possible for Singapore to achieve such remarkable results without the backing of any economic giant? Once again, the manufacturing sector has been the backbone, with particular outstanding performance in the biomedical field.

Its tourism sector is also booming. Since casinos opened on Sentosa Island, tourists have been arriving in record numbers, while financial companies keep hiring people.

Only the naive would disagree that Hong Kong should draw reference to Singapore for ideas, on the grounds that it's too small a state to be of relevance. On the contrary, Singapore has demonstrated a high degree of innovation as well as self-reliance.

Meanwhile, what has happened to Hong Kong over all these years? Many opportunities have slipped through as a result of protracted political bickering.

Will the passage of the 2012 electoral reform package help to repave the political landscape so that policy making can be more effective? Let's hope so.

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